March 21, 2016
U.S. Housing Market Remains Healthy As Most Regions Should See Sustainable Expansion This Year
Job growth and wage gains should boost household formations again after a brief slowdown to end 2015
Columbus, OH - Despite a surprising slowdown in household growth at the end of 2015, the outlook for the U.S. housing market remains upbeat thanks to solid housing demand driven by continued job growth and incipient wage gains. Positive U.S. economic activity continues to support the housing market, which shows little chance of a downturn in the next year, according to the latest housing market barometer released today by Nationwide, a leading insurance and financial services organization.
The forward-looking Health of Housing Markets Report (HoHM Report) evaluates the housing health for the U.S. and 400 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). This quarter’s performance rankings show housing markets in the vast majority of MSAs remain healthy. The latest report suggests that most local housing markets should see sustainable expansion over the next year, although there are increasing concerns in markets with strong ties to the energy sector.
The report also indicates that:
- The most sustainable major housing markets in the nation include Milwaukee, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, New York, and Philadelphia.
- Low oil prices continue to weigh on job growth and therefore housing outlooks for MSAs in energy intensive areas — especially in Texas and Louisiana, where several housing markets have slightly negative outlooks. Eight of the bottom 10 MSAs are from these two states.
- A slowdown in household formations in the fourth quarter of 2015 negatively affected the Leading Index of Healthy Housing Markets (LIHHM) scores of many MSAs, but given continued job growth and wage gains, household formations should pick up again soon, helping the LIHHM scores to rebound.
“The cumulative boost from stronger job growth over the past two years, particularly for millennials, combined with the pent-up demand to form households resulted in a sizable jump in household formations starting late in 2014 and running through most of last year,” said David Berson, Nationwide’s senior vice president and chief economist. “The recent economic, jobs and wage data do not support the surprising decline in household formations we saw at the end of 2015, and because of continued economic expansion, we do not expect a housing downturn in the next year.”
The Top 10 MSAs in the index are, in order: Dayton, Ohio; Yakima, Wash.; Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio; Saginaw, Mich.; Syracuse, N.Y.; Trenton, N.J.; Niles-Benton Harbor, Mich.; Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.; Lansing-East Lansing, Mich.; Columbus, Ohio
The Bottom 10 MSAs, in order, are: Houma-Thibodaux, La.; Laredo, Texas; Lafayette, La.; Victoria, Texas; Austin-Round Rock, Texas; Asheville, N.C.; Hammond, La.; San Angelo, Texas; Odessa, Texas; Watertown-Fort Drum, N.Y.
Showing the most improvement in the past year, in order, are: Weirton-Steubenville, W.Va.-Ohio; Lima, Ohio; Lansing-East Lansing, Mich.; Glens Falls, N.Y.; Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa; Dubuque, Iowa; Fairbanks, Alaska; Roanoke, Va.; Columbus, Ind.; Oshkosh-Neenah, Wis.
Weakening the most in the past year, in order, are: Victoria, Texas; San Angelo, Texas; Grand Junction, Colo.; Laredo, Texas; Williamsport, Pa.; Farmington, N.M.; Buffalo-Niagara Falls, N.Y.; Asheville, N.C.; Boulder, Colo.; Santa Fe, N.M.
More information about the HoHM Report, including the methodology used, can be found at www.inthenation.com/housing. The HoHM Report will be released on a quarterly basis online and in print.
Nationwide, a Fortune 100 company based in Columbus, Ohio, is one of the largest and strongest diversified insurance and financial services organizations in the U.S. and is rated A+ by both A.M. Best and Standard & Poor’s. The company provides a full range of insurance and financial services, including auto, commercial, homeowners, farm and life insurance; public and private sector retirement plans, annuities and mutual funds; banking and mortgages; excess & surplus, specialty and surety; pet, motorcycle and boat insurance. For more information, visit www.nationwide.com.